Ming's stockagies training

8th intake
Intro session (free) - 9th Sept Sun 1- 3pm
2nd session - 15 Sept Sat, 1 - 5pm
3rd session - 16 Sept Sun, 1 - 4pm

9th intake
Intro session(free)- 9th Sept Sun 1- 3pm
2nd session - 22 Sept Sat , 1 - 5pm
3rd session - 23 Sept Sun, 1 - 4pm

I will contact those scheduled for the this 2 intakes intro sessions. For those that also want to attend the free intro lesson, pls do email me at terrence.ming@gmail.com.

Finatics courses

In additon I want to clarify some doubts on my courses and the trainer involved.

My company Finatics will have 2 courses now.

1) Ming's stockagies training.
This course is the one I came out with and the 6th intake been this weekend. It has undergoes modification according to past students comments and also my own observation and it will be entire taught by me and course will cover mainly companies analysis ( 3 financial statements analysis), and their fundamentals. (FA) It will also cover 2 entering and exiting methods - PE and support and resistance. This analysis and investing strategies is the one I personally used since I started investing which has a very good track record. ( highest loss $80, lowest gain $880).

2) Law's TA training
My new trainer , Mr Law will cover entering the market using mainly techncial analysis methods. I will post details on this course later. Registration for this course will also be open very soon.

Analysis on US subprime woes

I want to share some of my own analysis reports after analyzing the markets since the STI starts to hover at 3500. I ever mention in class , in my website and on forum that the market does not crash overnight. Based on historical records, markets using hover around a level before it crashes , or what I usually defined as a major correction as market is always going up in long run. In my website, I mentioned before on 18 may 2007 that the market has tell 3 tale signs of a major correction.

1) The STI and world market has peaked and is the highest ever in history . Meaning for it to goes down drastically it must comes from a high point.
2) the STI has been hovering at 3.5k level for very long
3) The so called 10 year pheonomeon since 1997 is this year. Reason is that markets is always cyclical, before it reaches a new high it got to goes down and then up again.

Based on these factors, I find the Singapore market did have dangers of crashing. Even if these prediction is wrong, current PE of many stocks ( PE is an indication of cheap or how expensive a stock is), is very high and it is hard to enter.
Thus one of the best way to enter a high market when it’s high is to play growth investing (as mentioned in class). Meaning to play small cap stocks that is expanding this few years and stock prices have go up recently. Hence hoping the overall good economy will pull these small cap stocks along with big stocks. However growth investing have their own risk as small companies have small market capitalization , and can’t survive a crash. In other words, using that strategy when a crash is imminent is extremely risky . Hence using growth investing is also not possible, and that was the main reason I stay out a while more. However, if research reports did not state anything like that, playing growth investing can then be applied and that was the situation in Jan to April.

In addition, I ever mentioned in class that the recent top 30 volume has been sesdaq stocks which is not a trend observed in the past 5 years at all! My analysis is that maybe nobody want to buy big cap stocks nor sell big cap stocks as they are either too expensive to owe now . Alternatively , no one has the cash to buy this stocks either.

Linking these back to the US subprime woes. Firstly , we must understand the underlying reason for this problem. The subprime woes mainly happened as banks lend money to people with poor credit history . In the end this people can’t pay back the loans and this create bad debts. Some research houses say that this problem is small and shouldn’t have an impact on the market, while others rebutted and stated it’s serious. I harboured a wait and see attitude to this problem initially to see the extend of this problem. Be in big or small, I know a correction is round the corner but how serious it gets , no one can predict for sure.

Later major central banks started to pump in money over a liquidity problem. The main trigger was that France’s biggest listed bank, BNP Paribus, withdrawals from three funds exposed to the U.S. subprime mortgage market totaling US $ 2.2 billion. The red alert came at this time, central banks usually do not step in unnecessarily. And when they do, that means the problem is major that the free market forces of the market is not able to solve and government intervention is the best solution. I shall not comment that central banks can't solve the credit crisis but my stand is that once central banks step in, the problem is usually serious.

My analysis is that whenever central banks step in , the problem is usually quite serious. Now the whole world central banks is pumping in money due to liquidiy crisis. No one knows for sure that the credit crisis is how big , but we know for sure that a correction is happening and a crash could be immenient. How much the market will fall again, no research expert can ever give a confident analysis. But we know sometime for sure, the market is falling drastically and there could crash, hence no one is should ever enter now! So don’t be greedy to play now, looking at stocks have fallen from their new highs and think you could enter. Secondly, I don’t suggest anyone to play short selling as that is also very risky!

What I suggest is to quickly find good companies, analyse their company fundamentals ( analyse the 3 financial statements as taught in class) , mean sure they can withhold a crash and has make increasing profits with also company expansion in recent years. Put this company in your watch list, note their PE. I ever mentioned again that it’s hard to catch a falling knife. In other words, no one knows for sure how much the market will continue to falls. But once it recovers significantly, we all will know and that’s when use value investing (as taught in class) , buying good fundamentals companies at bargain prices. Hopefully you will see capitaland and sgx fall to 2 plus dollar regions. However, you got to be patient in these stocks, market does not recover overnight. The market can lose 1000 points within a couple of months, but take at least 2 years to rise 1000 points. In other words, you got to hold these stocks for the longer term , at least above a year and a half.

That’s my analysis and the investing strategy I use for now which is mostly using fundamental analysis and warren buffet strategies. I hope this will be of help to everyone. Thanks.

Finally to attend my free intro lesson, pls email particulars to terrence.ming@gmail.com or URL to my site. Thank you.

Ming